Macro Event Analysis

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets the federal funds rate — the benchmark interest rate that influences borrowing costs across the entire economy. The decision comes with a policy statement...

The Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. Headline CPI includes all items; Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy p...

The Employment Situation Report — commonly called 'Non-Farm Payrolls' or 'the jobs report' — measures the number of jobs added or lost in the US economy, excluding farm workers, government employees, ...

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Unlike CPI, PCE accounts for substitution effects (when consumers switch to cheaper alternati...

GDP measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States. The advance estimate comes about a month after the quarter ends, followed by two revisions. It captures consumer s...

The Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It tracks inflation at the wholesale level — before it reaches consumers — makin...

The Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey measures total receipts at stores selling merchandise to the public. It covers everything from auto dealers to restaurants to e-commerce. The 'control group' (e...

The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is a survey-based diffusion index where readings above 50 indicate expansion and below 50 indicate contraction in the manufacturing sector. Sub-compone...

The ISM Services PMI (formerly Non-Manufacturing) covers the services sector, which represents roughly 70% of the US economy. Like the manufacturing PMI, readings above 50 indicate expansion. It inclu...

Initial Jobless Claims reports the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time each week. Continuing claims track those still receiving benefits. The 4-week moving avera...

The Consumer Confidence Index surveys 5,000 US households on their assessment of current business and employment conditions and their expectations for the next six months. The Present Situation Index ...

The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for goods expected to last 3+ years. Core capital goods ord...

Housing Starts counts the number of new residential construction projects begun during a month. Building Permits measures authorized permits for future construction. Together, they indicate the health...

The Industrial Production Index measures real output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. Capacity utilization — the percentage of productive capacity in use — is reported alongside. T...

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey provides data on job openings, hires, and separations (quits, layoffs, discharges). The job openings figure measures unfilled positions across the economy....